Spokane Produce

September 23, 2026

Market News

Fall is officially here. While iceberg, broccoli and cauliflower are still sitting
high on our watch list, it’s a good time to turn our attention to another
seasonal change happening in produce.
We’re getting close to the end of California’s Valencia orange season, and for
the first time we have a pretty good look at what the upcoming Navel crop
may have in store.
The first USDA estimate puts the 2026-27 California Navel crop at 84 million
cartons, up slightly from the 82 million cartons produced last season. Fruit set
is also up about 3%, while average fruit size is almost identical to last year.
On paper, that’s a pretty encouraging start.
For most of the summer, the story on Valencias has been size. Small fruit,
especially 113s and 138s, has been difficult to come by, and school demand
quickly exposed just how limited that part of the crop was. The hope with
Navels is that a slightly larger crop gives us a little more breathing room and
better availability across the size profile.
We’re expecting the first California Navels to begin shipping around mid to
late October. That timing should line up pretty well with the end of the
Valencia season and, assuming the crop develops as expected, give us a
smoother transition into fall and winter citrus.
The 84-million-carton forecast is larger than last year, but it’s not an unusually
large crop. Looking back at the historical numbers, California has produced
crops north of 90 million cartons in several previous seasons, so this looks
more like a healthy crop than an oversupplied one.
That should be good news for both sides of the market. More fruit should help
improve availability and give foodservice, fresh-cut and grab-and-go
programs a little more consistency, while overall production still looks
reasonable enough to keep the market from becoming overly heavy.
There’s still plenty of fruit left to grow between now and the first meaningful
Navel harvest, and the early pack-outs will tell us a lot more about where the
sizes actually land. But after a Valencia season where small fruit has been one
of the biggest challenges, a slightly bigger Navel crop is a welcome way to
start fall.

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